Estimation of Probable Maximum Sea Level at Macro-tidal Area

Abstract

The concept of probable maximum sea level was applied to estimate design tide level of which could be applied to a very restricted design requirement such as a nuclear power plant. Furthermore, regarding macro-tidal area such as West Coast, empirical simulation technique was applied as sea level needs to be estimated with considering both tide and typhoon surge. The return period has been set up for 10,000 years, and the sea level was simulated by generating hypothetical typhoon in order to typhoon-surge event which is included in training set. If one year among advanced generation of high tide data for 20 years, is selected, maximum sea level would be set by combination of single typhoon-surge event of the training set in certain time frame. Sea level of 10,000 year return period and others would be estimated by this hypothetical generation. In addition, in order to reflect future climate change, enlargement in storm intensity which could be led more than 20% stronger and increase in sea level regarding RCP 8.5 scenario on the basis of 2100. The probable maximum sea level was ultimately estimated by calculating the maximum extent of confidence intervals in order to maximize the sea level.