Estimation of premature death attributed to short- and long-term PM2.5 exposure in Thailand.

Abstract

Particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) has been identified as a global health concern in recent decades. Indeed, PM2.5 exposure causes detrimental health problems in the general population. Estimating the short- and long-term health impacts of PM2.5 exposure should help to shape public health policy concerning air pollution. Hence, this study sought to estimate the rate of premature death attributable to PM2.5 exposure among the Thai population if the PM2.5 concentration met the applied counterfactual factor. The PM2.5 concentration, population numbers, and numbers of health incidences were collected from secondary data sources in 2019. A health impact analysis was performed using AirQ+ software to estimate the incidences of premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure. More specifically, the analysis provided the estimated proportion of attributable cases and the rate of premature death per 100,000 population aged ≥ 30years. The annual average PM2.5 concentration in Thailand was found to be 24.15µg per cubic meter (μg/m3) in 2019, while the natural mortality rate was around 1,107 per 100,000 population nationwide. With regard to short-term PM2.5 exposure, it was determined that 8 premature deaths per 100,000 population could be prevented if the PM2.5 concentration met the World Health Organization (WHO) short-term gold standard of 15μg/m3. Moreover, 159 premature deaths per 100,000 population could be avoided if the PM2.5 concentration met the WHO's long-term gold standard of 5μg/m3. This estimation of premature deaths due to the short- and long-term impacts of PM2.5 exposure can support policymakers and stakeholders in creating a roadmap to combating the adverse impacts of PM2.5 exposure and protect the health of the Thai population.