Abstract
This paper presents the estimates of older-adult (persons aged 60 years and above) mortality from census data in Nigeria using the fixed-base model, an application based on the variable-r method. From the 1991 and 2006 censuses in Nigeria, it was observed that the probability of dying between ages 60 and 65 [5 q60] is 0.068 (or 68 per 1000 persons) among males and 0.033 (or 33 per 1000 persons) among females. While the probability of dying between ages 60 and 70 [10 q60] is 0.221 (or 221 per 1000 persons) among males and 0.256 (or 256 per 1000 persons) among females. Furthermore, the probability of dying between ages 60 and 75 [15 q60] is 0.324 (or 324 per 1000 persons) among males and 0.389 (or 389 per 1000 persons) among females. The results appear more like the pattern of mortality rates in developed countries than in developing (sub-Saharan) countries, probably due to the lack of completeness of female census data. Even at that, the results from the model are consistent with the estimates from other known sources. It is expected that the results will help in tracking the progress of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Nigeria, among others.
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