Estimation of Nonlinearity in the Problem of Constructing Confidence Regions for Movement of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids Observed in One Opposition

Abstract

Theoretical substantiation of different methods for calculating the nonlinearity indices in problems of constructing confidence regions for asteroid movement is given. The nonlinearity indices of potentially hazardous asteroids observed in one opposition are determined from the data for March 2014 presented by the Minor Planet Center (MPC). The examined asteroids are subdivided into groups with the nonlinearity index smaller than 0.01, lying in the range from 0.01 to 0.1, and greater than 0.1. This will allow one to make a correct choice between the linear and nonlinear approach to the problem of constructing the initial confidence region for each concrete asteroid from this list.