ESTIMATION OF MODERN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AFRICA

Abstract

Long-term time series of monthly precipitation from the beginning of observations to 2022 at 57 meteorological stations in central Africa were studied to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation dynamics in this part of the African continent. The spatio-temporal distributions of precipitation for the dry and wet seasons have been obtained and it has been established that the least amount of precipitation is observed from November to March, and the biggest - from April to October. According to the type of intra-annual changes in precipitation, four homogeneous climatic regions were identified, and in each of them an assessment of the changes that occurred was given. Various methodological approaches have been applied to assess changes in precipitation in the months of the wet and dry seasons of the year. In general, no significant changes in the dynamics were found, however, a general trend was established for a decrease in precipitation during the months of the wet season and their increase in certain parts of the territory during the months of the dry season of the year. The decrease in wet season months ranged from -25.5 mm to -138.5 mm or 0.8 to 1.2 RMSD and a separate increase of 52.8 mm and 68.1 mm or 0.8 to 1.1 RMSD. During the dry season, the largest decrease was in the north and central regions, reaching -31.6mm (0.88 RMSD) in February, while a significant increase occurred in the coastal areas of the Gulf of Guinea, reaching 15mm (2 RMSD) in January.