Estimation of maximum mass velocity from macroseismic data: A new method and application to archeoseismological data

Abstract

An important task in seismic hazard assessment is the estimation of intensity and frequency of rare strong seismic shaking, in particular, the long-term peak ground velocity values (PGVs). A recently proposed method is suitable for simply estimating PGVs based on the examination of the magnitude of displacements of rock blocks. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated by results of studies on the source zones of two large earthquakes and a vicinity of one strong explosion. In this study, the method is applied to the examination of archeoseismological data from the ancient Rehovot-ba-Negev city and other ancient cities from the Negev desert (in Southern Israel) where numerous evidences of presumable seismic damage were found earlier. The cities and also a sophisticated irrigation system within the region, which existed in the Negev desert, were abandoned however in the middle of the seventh century. The abandonment could be caused by a combined effect, from not only the cessation of the state support from Byzantium as a result of the Arab conquest but also the severe destruction from the strong earthquake that hit the area at that time. The intensities of the seismic events that hit the cities were estimated earlier, which are within the range of 8–9. Our estimates indicate that the PGV values are about 1.5 m/s. Hence, the magnitude of the causative earthquake could be in the range M ≈ 6.5–7.5, and the location of the epicenter might be at a distance of a few dozens of kilometers from the ancient Rehovot-ba-Negev city, while the other variants associated with the earthquake seem to be less probable.