Abstract
Changes in hydrological cycles and water resources will certainly be a direct consequence of climate change, making the forecast of hydrological components essential for water resource assessment and management. This research was thus carried out to estimate water balance components and water yield under current and future climate change scenarios and trends in the Guder Catchment of the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia, using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Hydrological modeling was efficaciously calibrated and validated using the SUFI-2 algorithm of the SWAT model. The results showed that water yield varied from 926 mm to 1340 mm per year (1986–2016). Regional climate model (RCM) data showed, under representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5), that the precipitation will decrease by up to 14.4% relative to the baseline (1986–2016) precipitation of 1228 mm/year, while the air temperature will rise under RCP 8.5 by +4.4 °C in the period from 2057 to 2086, possibly reducing the future basin water yield output, suggesting that the RCP 8.5 prediction will be warmer than RCP 4.5. Under RCP 8.5, the total water yield from 2024 to 2086 may be reduced by 3.2 mm per year, and a significant trend was observed. Local government agencies can arrange projects to solve community water-related issues based on these findings.
Highlights
Sustainable socio-economic development is built on the foundation of water resources [1,2]
The streamflow/discharge data used were from the Guder river gauge station to
The streamflow/discharge data used were from the Guder river0.71, gauge station to calobserved and simulated discharge during calibration
Summary
Sustainable socio-economic development is built on the foundation of water resources [1,2]. The availability of water resources has diminished in recent decades, and some places of the world are experiencing increased water resource stress due to global climate change. The water demand will rise in future decades, mainly owing to the population increase and rising opulence; regionally, significant changes in agricultural water demand and in the impact on food availability, stability, access and utilization due to changes in water quantity and quality are projected as a result of climate change [3]. The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa has been estimated to be 75–250 million in the 2020s and will rise to 350–600 million people by the 2050s. The impact of climate change on water resources across the continent is not uniform [5]. Using the IPCC’s SRES scenarios from the HadCM320 climate model, the study by Arnell (2004) showed that runoff in the north and south of Africa is decreasing significantly, while runoff in eastern Africa and sections of semi-arid Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia, is expected to increase by 2050 [6]
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