Estimation of HIV diagnosis rate with CD4(+) T-lymphocyte level and infected-time model in Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the total number of people infected with HIV and to calculate the diagnosis rate of HIV in Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province. Methods: Through the comprehensive AIDS prevention and treatment information system, we collected and analyzed the relevant information of the new diagnosis report of HIV in Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province in 2006-2015, mainly including age, sex, infected transmission, CD4(+) T-lymphocyte counts, diagnostic time and so on. The content of the study was to establish a model method for estimating the diagnosis rate of HIV in Dehong. First, used the first CD4(+) T-lymphocyte count after HIV diagnosis to estimate the date of infection. Then based on the estimated time from HIV infection to diagnosis we can estimate the diagnosis delay distribution which in turn can be used to account for individuals infected but not yet diagnosed and thus estimated the total number of HIV infections (diagnosed and undiagnosed). Finally, the number of new infections in each year was added to estimate the total number of infected people, and the number of people who had been diagnosed was divided by the total number of infected persons to obtain the proportion of HIV diagnosis rate. Results: There were 8 215 reported cases in Dehong from 2006 to 2015, of which 1 297 cases were reported in 2007 (15. 8%) and 361 cases (4.4%) in 2015. The diagnosis rate of newly infected persons were 88% in 2005 and before. And from 2006 to 2015, the diagnosis rate of newly infected persons were 75%, 71%, 68%, 66%, 61%, 58%, 53%, 45%, 40% and 33%, respectively. The total number of newly infected persons in 2005 and before was 11 197 cases. The annual new infected number from 2006 to 2015 was 653, 671, 723, 640, 509, 468, 369, 375, 285 and 224 cases. The total number of people infected with HIV in Dehong was 16 114 cases, and the diagnosis rate was 87.7%. Conclusion: The diagnosis rate of HIV in Dehong was at a high level. Since 2008, the annual number of new infections in Dehong has been declining.