Abstract
The author proposes an indirect method for estimating trends in historical migration rates, based on data commonly available from a single census. The method exploits the logical relationship between cohorts' lifetime and single-period transition probabilities, by comparing observed lifetime migration probabilities with those expected under various parametric time trends in period migration rates. In tests with figures from Brazil's Census of 1980, the proposed method performs very well. It identifies all major trends in twentieth-century Brazilian interregional migration. When combined with rough estimates of past populations at risk of migration, it yields estimates of historical migration flows which are quantitatively similar to estimates from standard multiple-census methods. In addition, because the new method permits estimation of gross (rather than only net) historical flows, it leads to insights about past migration which are not possible with standard methods.
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