Estimation of Growth Model for Population of Ethiopia Using Least Square Method

Mulugeta Tesfa

doi:10.7176/jnsr/12-1-05

Abstract

The purpose of this study focused on modeling the population of Ethiopia using different models and estimating the models parameters via least square method. The models, that were applied for the population growth, were Malthus growth model, Logistic growth model and General growth model. To identify the models which performed effectively in prediction of the actual population, the measure accuracy has been used, such that the models satisfying the criteria of the measure of accuracy is the best statistical model. The results of the analysis were presented using tables and graphical form which are very good to perform comparison for the effectiveness of the models. In this study, MAPE, RSE , MAD and R2 which are considered to measure the accuracy of the models. Malthus growth model, Logistic growth model and General growth model used the population of Ethiopia from 1980 to 2020 inclusive, the data was obtained from international data base(IDB). R studio 3.6.3 were used to estimate the models parameters using simple codes. The study proposed to project the population of Ethiopia via General growth model which performed best in measure of accuracies that makes it effective and efficient as compare with the other models. The model had the smallest RSE ( 492,155 ), MAPE (0.75%) and MAD ( 379,942 ) as well as the highest R2(99.97%) relative to the other models. Keywords: Logistic model, parameter estimation, Malthus model, General model, selection methods DOI: 10.7176/JNSR/12-1-05 Publication date: January 31 st 2021

Highlights

Ethiopia population is estimated to be about 114,310,670 in the year 2020 (World meters, 2020) that rose in rapid population growth, which in many instances far outstrips economic growth and environmental sustainability, is the reality in most developing countries of sub-Saharan Africa (UNDP, 1992)
This result is identical with the result of Mulugeta et al (2020) and it is contradicted with the result in Ethiopia population whereas Malthus growth model was selected as best model for the projection of Ethiopian population (Sintayehu A., 2016) and Logistic growth model was found the best model for the projection of United republic of Tanzania population (Mussa A. et al 2019)
The population growth rate of Ethiopia based on the information in International Data Base (IDB) and world meter were approximately 2.74% per year in 2017 and 2.62% in the years 2018 and 2.60% in year 2019 which founds the population growth rate 2.76% for Malthus model, 2.88% for logistic growth model and 2.73% per year for General growth model

Summary

Introduction

Ethiopia population is estimated to be about 114,310,670 in the year 2020 (World meters, 2020) that rose in rapid population growth, which in many instances far outstrips economic growth and environmental sustainability, is the reality in most developing countries of sub-Saharan Africa (UNDP, 1992). Ethiopia is the second most populous country in the sub-Saharan Africa next to Nigeria, with population growth rate of 2.6 percent per year and the total fertility rate approximate to 5 The most recent census was conducted in 2007 and estimated a population of 73.5 million, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 2.9 percent. In 2012, an Inter-Censual Population Survey (ICPS) estimated the population at 83.7 million, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 2.6 percent (Alemayehu B. and Yihunie, 2014). Population estimation supplies the future estimates of Ethiopia population which is basic for planners and policy makers who works on the improvement of quality of life of citizens (Sintayehu A., 2016)

Objectives

Methods

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Discussion

Conclusion