Estimation of GPS strain rate and its error analysis in the Chinese continent

Abstract

In this paper we first estimate the strain rate field with 1202 GPS vectors from 1999 to 2005 in the Chinese continent. Then we propose a method to make error analysis of the strain rates computed from GPS vectors based on the Monte Carlo technique. In general, the orientations of compressive principal strain rates are in agreement with those of present tectonic stresses. The strain rates in the paper confirm the tectonic features of Tibetan Plateau such as NE–W compression and shortening, E–W extension, and normal faulting along near N–S faults. At the same time, the eastward extrusion in the east part of Tibet can also be seen from the strain rate field. In the error analysis, independent computation of strain rates is repeated for a large number of times, both the absolute and relative errors as well as the mean value of strain rates are obtained through statistical theory. The error result shows that the errors of strain rates may be associated with the uncertainties of GPS measurement and the distribution of GPS stations in space. The magnitude of the strain rate error is in the range of 3–8 × 10 −9/yr across China in general. However, we found that the relative errors are much larger in East China than those in the west of China. In addition, the relative errors of maximum shear strain rates are smaller than those of surface dilation rates. Also, we found that there may be some correlations between maximum shear strain rates and seismic activities. Where the maximum shear strain rates are higher, there the earthquakes occur more frequently. The computed GPS strain rates reveal the distributed nature of deformation across the whole Chinese continent, and can represent the main present-day tectonic features. The strain rate and its error in the paper may provide important constraints to geodynamical modeling.