Estimation of Glacier Melt Water Contribution for Human Consumption in the Royal Andes Considering Temperature Measurement Errors

V Moya Quiroga,Y Asaoka,K Udo,J Mendoza,A Mano,S Kure

doi:10.4236/ojmh.2014.42003

V Moya Quiroga, Y Asaoka + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.4236/ojmh.2014.42003

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Abstract

Glaciers from the West side of the Royal Andes are an important source of fresh water for some of the most important Bolivian cities like El Alto. Temperature is an important datum for hydrological modelling and for glacier melt estimation. All temperature measurement devices have some degree of uncertainty due to systematic errors; thus, any temperature measurement has some errors. It is important to estimate the influence of such errors on the results from hydrological models and the estimation of melt water. The present study estimates the melt water contribution from the glaciers Tuni and Huayna West as a source of water supply for human consumption of El Alto considering the errors from temperature measurements. The hydrologic response of the basins was simulated with a hydrologic model. The glacier melt contribution was estimated as the difference between the discharge from the current scenario (with glaciers) and the discharge from a scenario without glaciers. Several volumes of melt water were estimated considering the temperature measurement and its possible errors. The uncertainty of such melt water volume was addressed by performing a Monte Carlo analysis of the possible melt water. The melt water contribution from glacier Tuni and Huayna West during the hydrologic year 2011-2012 was between 1.37 × 106 m3 and 1.72 × 106 m3. Such water volume is enough to meet the yearly water demand of between 6.81% and 8.55% of El Alto.

Highlights

Glaciers are an important source of freshwater in the mountainous river basins of the Andes
We aim to estimate the glacier melt water contribution from the Tuni and Huayna West glaciers as a source of water supply for the human consumption of El Alto during the hydrological year 20112012; unlike traditional analysis that consider the measured temperature as the true value, the present study considers the systematic errors of the temperature measurements and quantifies the melt water contribution considering the whole range of possible true temperature values
The present study analyzed the melt water contribution from the Glaciers Tuni and Huayna West to their respective basins considering the systematic errors of the temperature measurements

Summary

Introduction

Glaciers are an important source of freshwater in the mountainous river basins of the Andes. In the Bolivian Altiplano important populated cities like El Alto (68.2 ̊W, 16.5 ̊S) developed above 4000 meters above sea level The city of El Alto relies on water from glacierized basins. Glacier retreat was reported all around the world [2]-[4]. Changing hydrological conditions due to glacier retreat will affect water supply, economic activities and the environmental equilibrium [5]. The long term availability of water in El Alto is sensitive to climate variability and glacier retreat. It is important to assess the impact of climate change and glacier retreat on the hydrology and water resources of the basins that supply water for El Alto. One important step for such goal is the estimation of melt water contribution to the total discharge

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