Estimation of Generated Electricity for the Solar Power Plant by Using Polynomial Regression

Abstract

The estimation of electrical energy that can be supplied from the renewable energy sources becomes a weighty matter regarding to increasing the share of these sources in the electrical energy sector all over the world. The installed power of power plants in Turkey has reached 100334 MW. Depending on the installed power, progress has been made in the electricity transmission and distribution sector over the years. Thus, there exist 21 distribution regions in electricity distribution in Turkey. Some distribution regions have reached 25 MWs in terms of solar installed capacity. While estimating the electrical energy demand for any distribution region, the total electrical energy that can be supplied by the solar power plants (SPP) in that region should be taken into account. In accordance with the legislation in Turkey, the authorized electricity retail sales company in each distribution region has to enter the daily estimation of the electrical energy, to be obtained from SPPs, located in its own region, on the web site of EPIAS (Energy Markets Operation Joint Stock Company). In this study, the estimation of electricity generation of the 990 kW solar power plant belonging to Osmaniye Special Provincial Administration and located in the town of Cevdetiye for the days 24.08.2021 and 25.08.2021 was carried out with the polynomial regression algorithm. Approximately 85% performance metric was got from the polynomial regression algorithm