Estimation of future storm surge inundation and effects of the adaptation measures in Qingdao, China

Abstract

The ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model was applied to the sea area surrounding Qingdao, China, to estimate the impact of climate change on storm surge and inundation induced by eight typical typhoons in current and future scenarios. Model results were validated using the available observations. These results indicate that the storm surge caused by typhoons with different intensities and paths has various effects on the Qingdao area. Furthermore, measurement results of the storm inundation area in the future scenario revealed that, in any case, with the future rise in sea level, the typhoon intensity, the inundation area, and the storm surge intensity increase. In response to changes in the storm surge and the actual situation in Qingdao, this study emphasized that coastal flooding is caused by the storm surge. Three adaptation measure scenarios were set as follows: the current level of adaptation measures (CLA), the continuation level of adaptation measures (CA), and the enhanced level of adaptation measures (EA). Based on different scenarios, the CA will reduce most of the inundation area caused by coastal flooding compared with the CLA. EA is the most significant in reducing inundation, demonstrating a decrease in inundation of more than 50%. This research has shown that good coastal protection will reduce most coastal flooding, and building dams will be considered a significant adaptation measure.