Abstract
An estimation technique whereby the first excursion probability of the mechanical appendage system subjected to the nonstationary seismic excitation can be conventionally calculated is proposed. The first excursion probability of the appendage system is estimated by using this method and the following results are obtained. (1) The probability from this technique is more convervative than that from a simulation technique taking artificial time histories compatible to the design spectrum as input excitation. (2) The first excursion probability is practically independent of the natural period of the appendage system when the tolerable barrier level is normalized by the response amplification factor given by the design spectrum. (3) The first excursion probability decreases as the damping ratio of the appendage system increases. It also decreases as the mass ratio of the appendage system to the supporting system increases. (4) For the inelastic appendage system, the first excursion probability is reduced, if an appropriate elongation is permitted.
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