Estimation of exponential component reliability from uncertain life data in series and parallel systems

Abstract

Estimating reliability of components in series and parallel systems from masking system testing data has been studied. In this paper we take into account a second type of uncertainty: censored lifetime, when system components have constant failure rates. To efficiently estimate failure rates of system components in presence of combined uncertainty, we propose a useful concept for components: equivalent failure and equivalent lifetime. For a component in a system with known status and lifetime, its equivalent failure is defined as its conditional failure probability and its equivalent lifetime is its expectation of lifetime. For various uncertainty scenarios, we derive equivalent failures and test times for individual components in both series and parallel systems. An efficient EM algorithm is formulated to estimate component failure rates. Two numerical examples are presented to illustrate the application of the algorithm.