Abstract
In estimating emissions reductions brought about by renewables in China, much of existing research assumes that renewables displace coal power. In this paper, this assumption is challenged and the potential environmental effects of photovoltaic (PV) power in North-west China are reevaluated when the marginal generator actually being displaced is taken into account. The annual PV power generation in the North-west Grid is estimated, in this paper, to be as high as 17900GW·h in 2015, roughly equaling to the output of 1.5 nuclear power plants in the US today. The total associated emission reduction in 2015 will at most be 0.36 percent of SO2 and 0.25 percent of NO x emissions from their 2010 levels in China. Further, PV power may render no emissions reduction at all if it displaces hydropower, which is often used to meet peak demand in the North-west Grid in China. These results imply that a more cost-effective area of focus in the shortterm may be on desulfurization and denitrification technologies for coal plants.
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