Estimation of Earthquake-Induced Direct Economic Losses of Portfolio Buildings Based on Seismic Fragility Surface

Abstract

Regional seismic loss assessment is crucial for developing earthquake emergency plans, which can significantly reduce casualties and socioeconomic losses in urban communities. Due to the complex types of building structures in a region, it is not possible to accurately measure the damage state of building structures using a single scalar ground motion intensity measure (IM). To more accurately reflect the responses of structures under earthquake excitations, the seismic fragility surface models for 4 typical RC frame structures are developed based on the vector ground motion IMs. The results indicate that the fragility surface model offers a superior level of precision in capturing the inherent uncertainty of ground motion and subsequently determines a more precise probability of structural failure, outperforming traditional single scalar ground motion IM fragility curve models. This enhanced accuracy holds significant implications for regional loss assessment. To fully consider the spatial cross-correlation of vector ground motion IMs, based on the established ground motion database of 8778 records, principal component analysis (PCA) and geostatistical analysis methods are used to construct a spatial cross-correlation influence field that simultaneously considers multiple ground motion IMs to simulate more realistic earthquake scenarios. Considering the impact of uncertainty in loss ratio on earthquake-induced direct economic loss estimation results, the maximum entropy technique is used in conjunction with an improved Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) to achieve spatially uniform sampling of loss ratio (LR). This study proposes an assessment framework for regional seismic direct economic loss for portfolio buildings based on the seismic fragility surface model considering spatial cross-correlation and uncertainty of loss ratio. The proposed framework is verified by numerical examples, and it is proven that the regional portfolio buildings considering multiple ground motion IMs is more reliable and robust than those merely considering a single ground motion IM, and when spatial cross-correlation is not considered, the probability of serious economic losses will be underestimated.