Estimation of diurnal total radiation based on meteorological variables in the period of plant vegetation in Poland

Paulina Stanek,Leszek Kuchar,Irena Otop,W Zielinski,L Kuchar,A Michalski,B Kazmierczak

doi:10.1051/itmconf/20182300032

Abstract

The paper presents selected models for the estimation of diurnal total radiation on the basis of other meteorological variables (using simple data as temperature and rainfall) in the vegetation months in the territory of Poland. For that purpose 6 meteorological stations were selected, having standard meteorological data as well as total radiation data for the period of 2001 – 2010. The stations were chosen so that two of them were situated on the coast, two in the lowland part of the country, and two in the mountains. The models were evaluated with the use of the coefficient of determination R² and the relative error of estimation RMSE with division into 6 months and 6 meteorological stations. In each of the regions the best results were obtained for models 6 and 7 which are combinations of the remaining models and additionally the constructed variable ΔT, used in other non-linear models analysed in the other studies. The best fit for those models was obtained for the mountain stations (R² from 0.67 to 0.75, RMSE from 2.7 to 4.4). The poorest estimation was obtained for the coastal stations (R² from 0.41 to 0.67, RMSE from 2.6 to 5.1). The paper does not indicate the best month in terms of the fitting, due to the high variation of results for the stations and the models.

Highlights

Estimation of total radiation is an important problem due to the frequent lack of observations in data series obtained at meteorological stations
On the basis of the estimated values of radiation coefficients R2 and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) were calculated for all stations and models, in division for the calendar months of the vegetation period (Tab. 4, Tab. 5)
The estimation of diurnal total radiation attained the best results at the stations situated in the mountains, i.e

Summary

Introduction

Estimation of total radiation is an important problem due to the frequent lack of observations in data series obtained at meteorological stations. That may result from a lack of measurement of that variable, temporary failure of measuring instrument, poor calibration, or other causes. In such a situation it is necessary to supplement the missing data in the best and simplest way, with the use of simple meteorological data as temperature and rainfall. Locations of the stations (Legnica, Kołobrzeg, Gdynia, Zakopane, Lesko, Warszawa) were chose so as to allow the testing of models under various climatic conditions of Poland: two of the stations are situated on the coast of the Baltic Sea, two in the mountains, and two in lowland areas in the central and the south-west part of Poland (Fig. 1, Tab. 2). The choice of the models to be tested was subjective, but conforming with the authors’ knowledge that those models should perform the best in the climatic conditions of Poland

Methods

Results

Conclusion