Abstract
Currently, novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a big threat to global health. The rapid spread of the virus has created pandemic, and countries all over the world are struggling with a surge in COVID-19 infected cases. There are no drugs or other therapeutics approved by the US Food and Drug Administration to prevent or treat COVID-19: information on the disease is very limited and scattered even if it exists. This motivates the use of data integration, combining data from diverse sources and eliciting useful information with a unified view of them. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that integrates global data for real-time prediction of infection trajectory for multiple countries. Because the proposed model takes advantage of borrowing information across multiple countries, it outperforms an existing individual country-based model. As fully Bayesian way has been adopted, the model provides a powerful predictive tool endowed with uncertainty quantification. Additionally, a joint variable selection technique has been integrated into the proposed modeling scheme, which aimed to identify possible country-level risk factors for severe disease due to COVID-19.
Highlights
Since Thursday, March 26, 2020, the US leads the world in terms of the cumulative number of infected cases for a novel coronavirus, COVID-19
We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model based on the Richards curve (1), which is referred to as Bayesian hierarchical Richards model (BHRM), to accommodate the COVID-19 data fyi; xigNi1⁄41. a principal goal of the BHRM is to establish two functionalities: (a). [Extrapolation] uncover a hidden pattern from the infection trajectory for each country i, that is, yi =>, through the Richards growth curve f(t;θ1, θ2, θ3, ξ) (1), and extrapolate the curve
It is important to emphasize that, while medical and biological sciences are on the front lines of beating back COVID-19, the true victory relies on advance and coalition of almost every academic field
Summary
Since Thursday, March 26, 2020, the US leads the world in terms of the cumulative number of infected cases for a novel coronavirus, COVID-19. On this day, a dashboard provided by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at the Johns Hopkins University (https:// systems.jhu.edu/-) [1] reported that the numbers of the confirmed, death, and recovered from the virus in the US are 83,836, 1,209, and 681, respectively.
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