Abstract
The number of container failures due to corrosion is estimated as a function of time for 55-gallon painted carbon steel drums under earthen cover. The calculations are performed using an empirical statistical model that assumes that the corrosion depths are given by a Poisson probability distribution parameterized by an average corrosion rate. Uncertainties in the average corrosion rate for both pitting and general corrosion are addressed, as is uncertainty in the drum wall thickness. Times for specific fractions of the population of drums to breach can be estimated in a manner that incorporates uncertainties in the corrosion process. To improve corrosion predictions, it is recommended that more data on the corrosion of carbon steel drums under earthen cover be collected in the future.
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