Estimation of comfort of weather conditions and trends of their changes for the Kyiv region in the conditions of climate change

Abstract

Climate change, the increasing variability of weather conditions and more often manifestation of extreme weather phenomena in Ukraine negatively affect the comfort of life, health, working capacity and mortality of the population. Evaluation of the population’s sensitivity towards the new climatic conditions and the establishment of tendencies in the distribution of comfortable and uncomfortable weather periods during the year were estimated based on the calculation of equivalent-effective temperatures (EET) according to the Missenard’s formula by using observation data from meteostations in the Kyiv region. A certain shift on a scale was established from a subcomfortable weather conditions in this region towards a more comfortable one for the period 1971―2018. However, the situation is becoming more complicated due to the increase in frequency of extreme temperatures in warm season, especially in summer, and significant variability in cold season (thermal and cold waves). Analysis of the periodical observations for meteorological parameters (surface air temperature, air humidity and wind speed) from 9 meteostations for the period 2006―2018 has showen that in cold season, against the general tendency to warming, significant variability of weather conditions appeared with an increase in frequency of frosty periods in winter and early spring. In warm period, the situation in the region is ambiguous, so for gradations (6÷12) and lower, there is a general tendency to decrease repeatability, and for gradations above (12÷16) to increase repeatability, which is associated with the appearing of heat waves. A possible scenario of the repeatability occurrence of comfortable and uncomfortable weather situations is also proposed for cold and warm periods of the year in the Kyiv region by the middle of the 21st century in the face of further climate change. Thus, biometeorological (bioclimatic) indices are effective indicators of the thermal structure of the environment, which surrounds a person, especially in the face of climate change, and their estimations are necessary to use in different spheres ― medicine, balneology, ecology, etc.