Estimation of carbon dioxide emissions per urban center link unit using data collected by the Advanced Traffic Information System in Daejeon, Korea

Abstract

CO2 emissions on roads in urban centers substantially affect global warming. It is important to quantify CO2 emissions in terms of the link unit in order to reduce these emissions on the roads. Therefore, in this study, we utilized real-time traffic data and attempted to develop a methodology for estimating CO2 emissions per link unit. Because of the recent development of the vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication technology, data from probe vehicles (PVs) can be collected and speed per link unit can be calculated. Among the existing emission calculation methodologies, mesoscale modeling, which is a representative modeling measurement technique, requires speed and traffic data per link unit. As it is not feasible to install fixed detectors at every link for traffic data collection, in this study, we developed a model for traffic volume estimation by utilizing the number of PVs that can be additionally collected when the PV data are collected. Multiple linear regression and an artificial neural network (ANN) were used for estimating the traffic volume. The independent variables and input data for each model are the number of PVs, travel time index (TTI), the number of lanes, and time slots. The result from the traffic volume estimate model shows that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ANN is 18.67%, thus proving that it is more effective. The ANN-based traffic volume estimation served as the basis for the calculation of emissions per link unit. The daily average emissions for Daejeon, where this study was based, were 2210.19 ton/day. By vehicle type, passenger cars accounted for 71.28% of the total emissions. By road, Gyeryongro emitted 125.48 ton/day, accounting for 5.68% of the total emission, the highest percentage of all roads. In terms of emissions per kilometer, Hanbatdaero had the highest emission volume, with 7.26 ton/day/km on average. This study proves that real-time traffic data allow an emissions estimate in terms of the link unit. Furthermore, an analysis of CO2 emissions can support traffic management to make decisions related to the reduction of carbon emissions.