Estimation of Belarus Trade Policy Liberalization Process Following Customs Union

Abstract

The research assesses the process of liberalization of trade policy of Belarus after the creation of the Customs Union (CU) due to the liberalization of non-tariff barriers. Evaluation is carried out using an error correction model with relative price changes based on the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP). In the first part of the article, a global classification of non-tariff measures developed on the basis of UNCTAD is given, and so are examples of non-tariff restrictions applied by Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. It also describes the research aiming to assess the impact of trade liberalization on wealth and economic growth. The second part contains a theoretical rationale for the model, construction of which is based on purchasing power parity in violation of the “law of one price”. The third part of the work contains a direct econometric estimation of the model. Before estimation the model is applied to prove model assumptions: in particular, the significance of the dummy variable implies liberalization of non-tariff measures, rather than a reduction of the customs tariff; non-tradable sectors are the same in the partner countries, and therefore the change of their prices is not evaluated. The result of the empirical analysis is the revealed inertness of the liberalization of non-tariff barriers in Belarus, as evidenced by the liberalization not since the creation of the Customs Union, but after several quarters. It also revealed the stimulation of consumption of imported products as a result of a decrease in their price due to liberalization.