Estimation of annual volumes of public transportation in a city

Abstract

Problem. The task of determining the annual volumes of public transportation in a city is relevant when addressing almost any issue related to processes in the field of public transport, as it provides decision-makers with data on the actual state of passenger traffic on the routes. These data reflect the current operating conditions of carriers and the level of passenger service and thus present the extent to which public transport is fulfilling its primary task of providing transportation for the population. Goal. The goal is development of a methodology for calculating annual passenger transportation volumes based on a sample tabular survey of urban routes. Methodology. The paper presents a methodology for transitioning from passenger transportation volumes obtained based on field observations of public transport operations to annual transportation volumes. The reliability of the forecast can be improved by estimating probabilistically the boundaries of the interval of possible values of the on-time traffic volume and accepting the lower boundary of the interval as a guaranteed estimate of the desired value of the traffic volume with a given probability. Results. A methodology has been developed that allows predicting the annual volume of passenger transportation by urban transport based on sample observations. It allows you to estimate the guaranteed volume of public transportation in the city for a year with a given probability, which provides the customer with additional information when forecasting the annual volume of public transport work based on the average value. Originality. The presented methodology consists of the new transition method from sample daily volumes of passenger transportation to total annual volumes. Practical value. Forecasting the volume of the passenger transportation is the most influential component in setting tariffs for transportation services. The developed methodology allows obtaining the required values of annual volumes with a high degree of accuracy, based on actual transportation volumes, and is of practical interest to local authorities.