ESTIMATION OF ANNUAL AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC ON LOCAL ROADS IN KENTUCKY

Abstract

OF THESIS ESTIMATION OF ANNUAL AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC ON LOCAL ROADS IN KENTUCKY Annual average daily traffic (AADT) is used to estimate intersection performance across Kentucky. The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC) currently collects AADTs for state maintained roads, but lacks this information on local roads. A method is needed to estimate local road AADTs in a cost-effective and reasonable manner. A literature review was conducted on AADT models and found no models suitable to Kentucky. Therefore an AADT model using non-linear regression was developed for local roads in Kentucky This model divided the state into three regions utilizing Kentucky’s highway districts. This partitioning accounted for geographic and socioeconomic variability across the state. Each regional model relied upon three independent variables: probe count, residential vehicle registration, and curve rating. HERE proprietary probe counts provide tracking visibility on a select portion of vehicles moving across Kentucky highways. Residential vehicle registrations were used to estimate trip generation information. Finally, the curve rating partially indicates accessibility. The models were adjusted to KYTC daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT) county control totals for local roads. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of model errors for use in intersection safety analysis. Results indicate that the estimates generated can be effectively used for safety assessment and countermeasure prioritization.