Estimation of ambient PM2.5-related mortality burden in China by 2030 under climate and population change scenarios: A modeling study.

Abstract

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is one of the most critical environmental and public health problems in China and has caused an enormous disease burden, especially long-term PM2.5 exposure. Global climate change represents another environmental challenge in the coming decades and is also an essential factor affecting PM2.5 pollution. Moreover, China has an aging population with a changing population size and falling age-standardized mortality rates. However, little evidence exists evaluating the potential impacts from climate change and population aging on the long-term PM2.5 exposure-related disease burden. This study quantifies the impacts of climate and population changes on changes in the disease burden attributed to long-term PM2.5 exposure from 2015 to 2030 in mainland China, which could add evidence for the revision of relevant environmental standards and health policies. This modeling study investigated long-term PM2.5 exposure-related mortality across China based on PM2.5 projections under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and population scenarios from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). PM2.5 concentrations were simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling systems. In addition, three types of population projections in 2030 relative to 2015 were set up as follows: (i) the population remained the same as that in 2015; (ii) the population size changed under SSPs, but the age structure remained the same; (iii) both the population size and age structure changed under SSPs. The global exposure mortality model (GEMM) was adopted to estimate PM2.5-related premature deaths. Ambient PM2.5 concentrations decreased from 2015 to 2030 under the two climate and emission scenarios. Estimates of related premature mortality in 2030 declined compared with that in 2015 due to lower PM2.5 concentrations (RCP4.5: -16.8%; RCP8.5: -16.4%). If the age structure of the population remained unchanged and the population size changed under SSPs, the nonaccidental premature mortality also showed a decrease ranging from -18.6% to -14.9%. When both population size and age structure changed under SSPs, the population in China would become older. Nonaccidental premature mortality would sharply increase by 35.7-52.3% (with a net increase of 666-977 thousand) in 2030. The PM2.5 pollution in 2030 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would slightly improve. The population sizes in 2030 projected by SSPs are relatively stable compared with that in 2015. However, the modest decrease due to air pollution improvement and stable population size would be offset by population aging.