Estimation of Alternative Ports for Container Transport after Large-scale Disasters - Estimation Method and Application to Port-BCPs -

Abstract

As a result of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, the port facilities of eastern Japan on the Pacific Ocean suffered severe damage and, ports with access to the Sea of Japan or Tokyo Bay functioned as alternative ports. Similarly, after the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, Osaka port and other major ports functioned as alternatives to the damaged Kobe port. In response to these issues, each port in Japan has developed a business continuity plan (port-BCP). An important issue in port-BCPs is identifying alternative ports. In the aftermath of future large-scale disasters (LSDs) such as a Nankai Trough earthquake and tsunami, it is predicted that the three major bay ports, at which the handling of container volume in Japan is concentrated, would be severely damaged. It is therefore necessary to assume that the handling capacities of alternative ports may reach their limits after a disaster. Against this background, the purposes of this study are (1) to quantify the demands for container transport after LSDs, (2) to improve the port choice model used to identify alternative ports so that it considers the capacity constraints of those ports, and (3) to apply the estimation result to the Tohoku regional port-BCP with the aim of preventing the disruption of container transport in the region after an LSD.