Estimation of Absolute Risk of Colorectal Cancer Based on Healthy Lifestyle, Genetic Risk, and Colonoscopy Status in a Population-Based Study

Abstract

Estimates of absolute risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) are needed to facilitate communication and better inform the public about the potentials and limits of cancer prevention. Using data from a large population-based case-control study in Germany (Darmkrebs: Chancen der Verhütung durch Screening [DACHS] study, which began in 2003) and population registry data, we calculated 30-year absolute risk estimates for development of CRC based on a healthy lifestyle score (derived from 5 modifiable lifestyle factors: smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, physical activity, and body fatness), a polygenic risk score (based on 90 single-nucleotide polymorphisms), and colonoscopy history. We analyzed data from 4220 patients with CRC and 3338 individuals without CRC. Adherence to a healthy lifestyle and colonoscopy in the preceding 10 years were associated with a reduced relative risk of CRC in men and women. We observed a higher CRC risk in participants with high or intermediate genetic risk scores. For 50-year-old men and women without a colonoscopy, the absolute risk of CRC varied according to the polygenic risk score and the healthy lifestyle score (men, 3.5%-13.4%; women, 2.5%-10.6%). For 50-year-old men and women with a colonoscopy, the absolute risk of developing CRC was much lower but still varied according to the polygenic risk score and the healthy lifestyle score (men, 1.2%-4.8%; women, 0.9%-4.2%). Among all risk factor profiles, the 30-year absolute risk estimates consistently decreased with adherence to a healthy lifestyle. In a population-based study, we found that a colonoscopy can drastically reduce the absolute risk of CRC and that the genetically predetermined risk of CRC can be further reduced by adherence to a healthy lifestyle. Our results show the magnitude of CRC prevention possible through colonoscopy and lifestyle at a predefined genetic risk. This observational study has been registered in the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS00011793), which is a primary registry in the World Health Organization Registry Network.