Abstract
For purposes of manpower planning we often need to estimate and predict distributions of durations in various grades of a company hierarchy. We have developed a methodology for fitting a stochastic environment to manpower data for both the non-homogeneous Markov system in a stochastic environment (S-NHMS) and the non-homogeneous semi-Markov system in a stochastic environment (S-NHSMS). These models provide a means of describing changes in the environment between contiguous periods. We may therefore simultaneously model both the process underlying a particular homogeneous time period and the process governing movements between such periods, thus providing a description of time heterogeneity. We may then make predictions of future movements of staff through the system.
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