Estimation and Reliability Research of Post-Earthquake Traffic Travel Time Distribution Based on Floating Car Data

Abstract

To carry out the estimation and reliability research of post-earthquake traffic travel time, which has the great influence for efficient allocation of relief materials. By analyzing the relationship among floating vehicle trajectory, target path and road network path, the intermediate parameters of converting floating vehicle trajectory data into target path travel time were defined and improved. In addition, the road damage identification method relying on lane detection is applied for evaluating the damage of road after the earthquake through the image information. Then, Bayesian average adaptive kernel density estimation method was used to estimate the distribution of post-earthquake road travel time, and a new formula for calculating the reliability of road travel time after earthquake was proposed. According to the example simulation and analysis, the proposed post-earthquake road travel time distribution estimation and its reliability are verified. The results show that when the threshold value is determined, the travel time of the path before the earthquake is the most dependable, and with the increase in the earthquake damage index, the travel time of this road section becomes increasingly unreliable. However, after the earthquake, the peak probability density of road travel time distribution weakens, and the overall probability shifts to the direction of long time.