Estimation and projection for HIV epidemic trend in Jilin province

Abstract

Objective To estimate HIV high-risk population sizes in 2009 and predict HIV epidemic trend in future according to the data from 1995 in Jilin province, and to provide the base for HIV prevention and control.Methods According to data of sentinel surveillance, case reporting, epidemiology survey and scientific lectures, workbook method and Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model were used to estimate the HIV epidemic in Jilin province. Results By the end of 2009, it was estimated that 5438 people were infected in Jilin province. The total prevalence of HIV infection rate was 0.02% according to the estimation. Among the 5438 cases, 2208 (40.6%) cases were infected through heterosexual contact, 2012(37.0%) through homosexual contact, 924(17.0%) through blood transmission, 162(3.0% ) through drug injection and 22(0.4% ) through verticle transmission. HIV high-risk population increased fast from 2000, and the increasing current would slow down from 2012. Conclusions The HIV epidemic in Jilin province is still low in 2009 and the sexual transmission is the main routine, the epidemic trend will increase in next few years. Key words: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome; Epidemic estimation; Estimation and projection package; Workbook