Estimation and prediction on cancer related incidence and mortality in China, 2008

Abstract

To estimate the incidence and mortality rates of cancers in China in 2008. Data from 36 cancer registry sites in China and from the Third National Death Survey in China (2004 - 2005) were used to estimate the incidence and mortality of cancer in China in 2008 by using mathematical models. Prediction on cancer incidence and mortality in the next 20 years was carried out. According to the age-standardized incidence rates, the top cancer sites were lung, stomach, liver, breast, oesophageal, colorectal, corpus uterine, cervical, leukemia and brain tumor. According to the age-standardized mortality rates, the top cancers in China were lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer, oesophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, breast cancer, cervical cancer, leukemia, brain tumor and corpus uterine cancer. Cancer happened more frequently among people older than 40 years, particularly among males. Data related to prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years. Both incidence and mortality of cancers in China had been increasing, with the most common cancers appeared to be lung, breast and digestive tract cancers, in China. People older than 40 years should be under specific care to receive prevention and care on cancer, with males in particular.