Estimation and prediction of pollutant emissions from agricultural and construction diesel machinery in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China☆

Abstract

Both agricultural and construction machinery are important non-road sources of atmospheric pollution, with total hydrocarbons (THC), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) emissions accounting for more than 60% of the total emissions from all non-road mobile sources in China. However, there exist relatively few efforts to establish the emission inventory for these machineries. This study attempted to estimate and predict air pollutant emissions from agricultural and construction diesel machinery, using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region as the case study area. The results show that total emissions of PM10, PM2.5, THC, NOX, CO and SO2 in 2015 were 41.10, 38.80, 86.14, 520.41, 379.01 and 17.32 Kt respectively. The contribution of agricultural machinery was slightly higher than that of construction machinery, accounting for 60–71% of the total. Moreover, emissions of various pollutants (except SO2) from agricultural machinery were mainly distributed in central Hebei (Cangzhou, Shijiazhuang and Baoding), while emissions from construction machinery were mainly distributed in Beijing and Tianjin. The prediction suggest that the total emissions of agricultural and construction diesel machinery in the BTH region would increase by 6% in 2020 and 9% in 2025. Moreover, pollutant emissions from construction machinery would contribute from 29% to 40% in 2015 to 34%–61% in 2025. These results could provide important information for making effective mitigation measures of non-road mobile sources.