Estimation and prediction of plastic losses to the environment in China from 1950 to 2050

Abstract

The widespread use of plastics has resulted in serious environmental problems. Large amounts of plastic waste are released into the environment. A dynamic material flow analysis model was employed to estimate the plastic losses to the environment in China, distributed into different polymers, sources, environmental media, and lifecycle processes. Microplastic and macroplastic losses entering the environment were 352.1 kt/a and 12.7 Mt/a, of which polyethylene terephthalate (PET) (29.1% and 32.2%) accounted for the highest proportion, and the loss stocks in the ocean and soil were 4.0 and 173.7 Mt in 2020. The main microplastic and macroplastic losses were associated with the release during the use stage and mismanaged waste management. Considering the impacts from reducing plastic losses, the losses and loss stocks in 2050 would be approximately twice and four times those in 2020, respectively. The results of this study provide scientific support for reducing plastic pollution.