Estimation and Prediction for Algorithmic Models of Investor Behavior

Abstract

We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the parameters of algorithmic models of investor behavior. We show that this method can successfully infer the relative importance of each heuristic among a large cross-section of investors, even when the number of observations per investor is quite small. We also compare the accuracy of the MCMC approach to regression analysis in predicting the relative importance of heuristics at the individual and aggregate levels and conclude that MCMC predicts aggregate weights more accurately while regression outperforms in predicting individual weights.