Abstract
AbstractThree alternative decision rules for estimation and control of an uncertain production process are examined. One is a certainty equivalence strategy whereby an optimal rate based on current estimates of production parameters is used throughout the planning horizon. A second is updated certainty equivalence, a passively adaptive strategy. Third is an actively adaptive control formulation. Monte‐Carlo simulation results show that the passively adaptive strategy outperforms the others. For the cases simulated, the actively adaptive approximation to the information state for a dual control problem is not good enough to establish superiority of this sophisticated strategy for all problems.
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