Estimation and interpretation of equilibrium scour depth around circular bridge piers by using optimized XGBoost and SHAP

Abstract

Most bridge failures result from scouring around bridge piers, resulting in economic losses and risks to public safety. The conventional equations for predicting the depth of scour at bridge piers have several limitations: (1) They mainly use regression-based techniques that cannot robustly capture the nonlinear relationship between the scour depth and its effective variables; (2) they are applicable only to a narrow range of variability of data; and (3) they are typically calibrated using laboratory data rather than field measurements and thus cannot simulate the prototype environment. To overcome these limitations, in this study, three novel hybrid machine learning methods: particle swarm optimization - extreme gradient boosting (PSO – XGBoost), red fox optimization - XGBoost (RFO – XGBoost), and relativistic particle swarm optimization - XGBoost (RPSO – XGBoost) are applied to estimate the scour depth around circular bridge piers, and their effectiveness is validated using three statistical metrics, i.e. the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). RPSO – XGBoost generates the best results for both dimensional and dimensionless data. Moreover, the proposed approaches outperform the state-of-the-art techniques. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method is used to assess the relative significance of the contributing factors for predicting the scour depth.