Estimation and implementations of conditional probabilities of occurrence of moderate earthquakes in India

Abstract

The present paper presents conditional probabilities of occurrence of moderate earthquakes considering the likelihood of occurrence of the next large earthquake in the seismically active regions in India where the last such occurrence has crossed the return periods. The conditional probabilities have been estimated using Weibull distribution. The estimations have been carried out for 24 seismogenic sources earmarked in the Indian subcontinent. The cumulative and conditional probabilities have been interpreted with respect to the last earthquake occurrence in the time intervals of 15 and 50 years. Most of the seismically active regions are found to have lesser recurrence of earthquakes with specific magnitudes as compared with the estimations being carried out using classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach. Keywords: Conditional probability, earthquake hazard, Weibull distribution