Estimation and forecasting of food security based on fuzzy cognitive approach

Abstract

The analysis of a set of groups of factors that form the food security (FS) of the state and its subjects is carried out, and an analytical review of known mathematical methods, as well as fuzzy models for their assessment is performed. The software tools for fuzzy cognitive modeling of the integral level of PB are justified. The key concepts of ensuring and evaluating FS are generalized and numerical estimates of their mutual influence are obtained based on a fuzzy cognitive approach. Along with the main groups of concepts «Production-Consumption-Stocks-Imports» listed in the national «Food security Doctrine», the constructed cognitive model also provides for accounting for additional ones. One of these factors-concepts is «Ecology», by which the authors understand the linguistic meaning of the integral level of the ecological state of the environment. The constructed cognitive map takes into account 11 basic concepts. It is shown that the advantage of the mathematical apparatus of impulse cognitive modeling, selected for research and implemented on a computer, is the possibility of system forecasting the development trends of the systems under study and the results of management decisions. In addition, it becomes possible to identify non-obvious consequences that are difficult to predict by expert method when the number of factors taken into account increases. The results of the analysis, obtained mainly in linguistic terms, are approximate due to the fuzzy nature of the evaluation scales used and reflect only the main trends in the development of the simulated SES. The results obtained allow us to justify a set of measures for the development and implementation of organizational and economic measures for the implementation of the state policy to ensure food and environmental security of the region.