Estimating wrongful convictions*

Abstract

Although numerous cases of wrongful convictions have been documented in the literature and in the media, criminologists have yet to devise a methodology for estimating the extent of such errors in the criminal justice system. I explore several methodologies with this purpose in mind, including the use of official data, inmates' self-reports, and case study approaches. Specifically, I use court-ordered discharges from imprisonment as a basis for measuring official error. In addition, I employ data from the RAND inmate surveys to estimate the extent of convicted offenders who deny their commitment offenses. Studies that attempt to catalogue individual wrongful convictions also serve as a basis for estimating false positive errors. Each methodology has its own limitations, but by employing multiple measures and approaches, I make possible an estimate of the “dark figure” of wrongful convictions.