Abstract
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide an estimate of the costs of premature mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachUsing COVID-19 pandemic-derived mortality data for November 9, 2020 (globally 1,303,215 deaths) and applying a country-based value of statistical life (VSL), the worldwide cost of premature mortality was assessed. The cost was assessed based on income groups until November 9, 2020 and projected into the future until March 1, 2021 using three scenarios from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).FindingsThe global cost of premature mortality is currently estimated at Int$5.9 trillion. For the high-income group, the current estimated cost is Int$ $4.4 trillion or $3,700 per person. Using IHME projections until March 1, 2021, global premature mortality costs will increase to Int$13.7 trillion and reach Int$22.1 trillion if policies are relaxed, while the cost with 95% universal masks is Int$10.9 trillion. The richest nations will bear the largest burden of these costs, reaching $15,500 per person by March 1, 2021 if policies are relaxed.Originality/valueThe cost of human lives lost due to the pandemic is unprecedented. Preparedness in the future is the best policy to avoid many premature deaths and severe recessions in order to combat pandemics.
Highlights
Economists view the value of life, not as a price of a human life but to assess the value of mortality risks humans place when considering trading off risk of dying and money [1,2,3]
To arrive to the Value of a Statistical Life” (VSL) of other nations, we used as the baseline, the USA’s VSL value of US$9.631m per life saved, as per Viscusi and Masterman [8], and a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in purchasing power parity constant 2017 international dollars (Int$) in 2019 at Int$62,683, as per the World Bank
Among the 142 countries with COVID-19-reported deaths, high-income countries accounted for 43% of these deaths and when the middle upper-income nations were included, the percentage increased to 83%
Summary
Economists view the value of life, not as a price of a human life but to assess the value of mortality risks humans place when considering trading off risk of dying and money [1,2,3]. The “Value of a Statistical Life” (VSL) is not about a particular death but about a statistical death. The VSL is often used to assess regulatory and global health policies which result in lives saved. Saving lives can only be achieved by implementing costly policy-based measures and benefits emerge which are equivalent to the benefits of saving lives.
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