Estimating wider economic impacts of transport infrastructure Investment: Evidence from accessibility disparity in Hong Kong

Abstract

Much recent work on transport and the economy has focused on ‘Wider Economic Impacts’ (WEIs) of infrastructure investment, the impacts other than time savings benefiting those actually using the transport network. Differential effects of transportation infrastructure by mode such as urban rail and road are relatively well known. However, impacts of other mode such as walking are scarce. This paper estimates wider economic impacts related to productivity from full rail, road and walking transport networks in Hong Kong in 2016. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that makes use of complex network science indicators with spatial cognition-weighted accessibility combining full urban rail network, road network, and pedestrian network in capturing wider economic impacts. We use an instrumental variable approach to identify the causal effect of transport network centralities on productivity measured by gross value added. Our identification strategy largely relies on the exogenous variations from historical planned and existing transport networks. A first specification confirms the significance of urban rail and road. Specification with pedestrian network shows that pedestrian and rail networks can statistically significantly increase productivity in Hong Kong while roads play a less significant but still meaningful role. Our findings are robust to a variety of sensitivity tests such as using night-time light intensity and residential wage as alternative measures for productivity. The research suggests a key planning policy implication: place-based policies in a dense city require improvement in pedestrian and rail network structure that impacts local and global transport accessibility.