Estimating Uncertainty of Geographic Atrophy Segmentations with Bayesian Deep Learning

Abstract

To apply methods for quantifying uncertainty of deep learning segmentation of geographic atrophy (GA). Retrospective analysis of OCT images and model comparison. One hundred twenty-six eyes from 87 participants with GA in the SWAGGER cohort of the Nonexudative Age-Related Macular Degeneration Imaged with Swept-Source OCT (SS-OCT) study. The manual segmentations of GA lesions were conducted on structural subretinal pigment epithelium en face images from the SS-OCT images. Models were developed for 2 approximate Bayesian deep learning techniques, Monte Carlo dropout and ensemble, to assess the uncertainty of GA semantic segmentation and compared to a traditional deep learning model. Model performance (Dice score) was compared. Uncertainty was calculated using the formula for Shannon Entropy. The output of both Bayesian technique models showed a greater number of pixels with high entropy than the standard model. Dice scores for the Monte Carlo dropout method (0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.93) and the ensemble method (0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.91) were significantly higher (P<0.001) than for the traditional model (0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.78-0.86). Quantifying the uncertainty in a prediction of GA may improve trustworthiness of the models and aid clinicians in decision-making. The Bayesian deep learning techniques generated pixel-wise estimates of model uncertainty for segmentation, while also improving model performance compared with traditionally trained deep learning models. Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.