Estimating uncertainty in thermal systems analysis and design

Abstract

Uncertainty analysis, which is frequently used in conjunction with experimentation, is adapted for use in thermal systems analysis and design. The basic concepts of uncertainty analysis are reviewed, and applications in thermal systems analysis and design are demonstrated for series piping systems, piping networks, and cross-flow heat exchangers. For piping systems and networks, the use of uncertainty analysis gives considerable understanding into the pump over-specification problem and results in a quantifiable alternative to the use of safety factors. The use of uncertainty analysis permits bounds to be placed on predicted performance parameters and yields insight into the fidelity of such predictions and the importance of various physical variables. Uncertainty analysis is shown to be a viable paradigm for energy system analysis and design.