Abstract

Understanding the impacts of tsunamis, especially in terms of damage and losses, is important for disaster mitigation and management. The aim of this study is to present our estimations of the potential losses from tsunami damage on Okinawa Island. We combine the use of a tsunami hazard map and our proposed economic loss model to estimate the potential losses that would be sustained by Okinawa Island in the event of a tsunami. First, to produce the tsunami hazard map, we calculated tsunami flow characteristics using the mathematical model TUNAMI-N2 and incorporating 6 earthquake fault scenarios around the study area. The earthquake scenarios are based on historical records along the Ryukyu Trench and the Okinawa. The resulting inundation map is overlaid with economic land use type and topography maps to identify vulnerable regions, which are then employed to compute potential economic losses. Second, we used our proposed economic model for this study area to calculate the potential losses that would be sustained in these vulnerable regions. Our economic model extends the multi-regional-input-output (MRIO) model, where the economic values of industrial sectors are scaled to correlate with land use and topography types (coastal and inland areas) to calculate losses through the Chenery–Moses estimation method. Direct losses can be estimated from the total input of the MRIO table, while indirect losses are computed from the direct losses and interaction parameter of the MRIO table. The interaction parameter is formed by linear programming and calculated using the Leontief methodology. Our results show that the maximum total damaged area under the 6 earthquake scenarios is approximately 30 km2. Inundation ranging from 2.0 to 5.0 m in depth covers the largest area of approximately 10 km2 and is followed by areas with inundation depths of 1.0–2.0 m and >5.0 m. Our findings show that direct losses will occur, while indirect losses are only approximately 56% that of direct losses. This approach could be applied to other areas and tsunami scenarios, which will aid disaster management and adaptation policies.

Highlights

  • Tsunami, one of Earth’s major natural hazards, affects human life and property

  • We perform the the simulation based on 6 earthquake scenarios along the Ryukyu Trench and the Okinawa Trough simulation based on 6 earthquake scenarios along the Ryukyu Trench and the Okinawa Trough around Okinawa Island

  • The aim of this study was to consider the level of tsunami damage caused by specific earthquake scenarios selected in this study on Okinawa Island, Japan, based on six earthquake scenarios

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Summary

Introduction

One of Earth’s major natural hazards, affects human life and property. Inundation caused by tsunami flooding often affects agricultural, industrial, and urban areas. The impacts of tsunami floods are expected to intensify in the coming years due to population growth, population migration to coastal areas, and climate change [1]. In the case of Japan, the agricultural, industrial, and commercial sectors, which are crucial for global exports, were seriously damaged by tsunami floods from the. The 2011 flood affected many urbanized areas (which consist of commercial and industrial sectors) within 300 kilometers along the East Japan coast, and the total. The results of natural disasters indicate the need to develop effective mitigation strategies after the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake

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