Estimating tree-quality potential in a managed white oak stand by Markov Chain analysis

Abstract

In many central hardwood stands, forest managers should be concerned about maintaining or improving the potential quality of future crop trees as well as increasing growth. Thinning practices have been shown to increase diameter and volume growth but there have been few studies on the effects of thinning on product potential. The effect of thinning to various basal area levels on the limb-related defect development of 80-year-old white oak (Quercusalba L.) is analyzed by Markov Chain analysis. The transition probabilities from the Markov Chain analysis were used to predict the expected number of limb-related defects by 5-year intervals for 40 years after treatment. At this age, the average tree in the untreated plots and the standard thinning had a probability of 0.81 of attaining grade 1. The average tree in the heavy and severe thinning had only a probability of about 0.25 of attaining grade 1. Generally, severe thinnings may result in a decrease of tree quality, particularly in white oak. Managers must balance this with increased growth potential and the inherent quality potential of the stand before making decisions.