Estimating total lynx Lynx lynx population size from censuses of family groups

Abstract

Counts of reproductive units, i.e. family groups, constitute the main monitoring index for lynx Lynx lynx populations in Scandinavia. However, for some purposes it is necessary to extrapolate from the number of family groups to obtain an estimate of total population size. Using data on survival and reproduction from radio‐marked lynx from three Scandinavian study areas, we simulated the lynx population structure in February. The average proportions of family groups out of all independent individuals, i.e. adults and yearlings, in these simulations were 21% ± 2.1 (SD), 22% ± 3.6 and 27% ±3.1 for the data sets from northern Sweden (Sarek), southeastern Norway (Hedmark) and south‐central Sweden (Bergslagen), respectively, and the overall mean for all three study areas was 23% ± 3.8. This translated into extrapolation factors of 6.14 ± 0.44,6.24 ± 0.73 and 5.48 ± 0.40 for the three study areas, respectively, leading to an overall mean for all three study areas of 5.95 ± 0.64. We conclude, that it is possible to extrapolate from the number of family groups to obtain an estimate of total lynx population size with a statistical measure of uncertainty.