Estimating the Societal Benefits of Satellite Instruments: Application to a Break-even Analysis of the GeoXO Hyperspectral IR Sounder

Christopher Lauer,Jeffery Adkins,Joseph Conran

doi:10.3389/fenvs.2021.749044

Abstract

This paper describes the process, and lessons learned in a preliminary benefits study of a proposed infrared hyperspectral sounder (HSS) for NOAA’s next generation geostationary satellite program (GeoXO). The valuation of government-owned satellite systems providing a public good with a complex array of instruments is a nascent field of study. Many different sensor configurations are possible, but there are restrictions due to physical and budget constraints. Accounting for economic considerations during the design and planning phase for satellite constellations helps to ensure that the most cost effective instruments are selected. To assess whether the HSS instrument should be included on GeoXO, we applied a value of information approach and found the benefits associated with this instrument are likely to substantially outweigh the costs. Value of information studies often focus on data and information that has a direct use case. Estimating benefits for the HSS is especially challenging because data are not used directly by decision makers. Instead these data along with information from other Earth observing (EO) satellites play a key role in producing the inputs necessary for modern numerical hydrometeorological modeling. We describe strategies to assess the marginal (i.e., incremental) contribution of an instrument that is part of a complex information production process. We make several recommendations that, if implemented, would improve the quality of future studies of this kind. This includes (1) a systems approach to observing system planning, (2) improving the design of observing system experiments (OSSE and OSE), and (3) better tracking of the decisions and needs of end-users, especially those external to the agency.

Highlights

Producing accurate and timely weather, water, and climate forecasts requires an array of observing infrastructure, advanced modeling capabilities, extensive computing power, and effective communication strategies
Observing system experiments (OSEs)/observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) designed with the end decision context in mind will make it easier to make a direct link to the marginal changes that result from new data. This analysis is based on preliminary cost estimates provided by the GeoXO program
The cost estimates have been updated since this analysis was performed, and will continue to be refined as the planning and design of GeoXO progresses, in response to a variety of engineering and technical considerations

Summary

Introduction

Producing accurate and timely weather, water, and climate forecasts requires an array of observing infrastructure, advanced modeling capabilities, extensive computing power, and effective communication strategies. NOAA’s current generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites is known as the GOES-R series. These satellites operate from a fixed position in the sky allowing continuous monitoring of the same location. The agency is developing a HSS Break-Even Analysis new generation of geostationary satellites (GeoXO) as a followon, with initial launch expected in the early 2030s and a life cycle of 20 years. The current GOES-R series includes the following sensors: Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and a suite of instruments for monitoring space weather and solar radiation. Alongside atmospheric composition and ocean color instruments, the Hyperspectral Infrared Sounder (HSS) will be a significant new investment for the constellation. We describe the assessment process and our findings; we describe challenges, lessons learned, and recommendations for improving future studies

Methods

Results

Conclusion