Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk of Malaria in 2 Operational Districts in Cambodia: Household-Based Survey.

Abstract

Cambodia is targeting the elimination of malaria by 2025. The last remaining pockets of malaria in Cambodia are concentrated among populations exposed to forested areas, but the size of these populations is not well understood. To plan for the procurement and distribution of vector-control tools, chemoprophylaxis, and other commodities for malaria prevention and surveillance, robust estimates of the population at greatest risk are required. This study aims to estimate the number of forest-exposed individuals residing in Cambodia's highest-burden operational districts (ODs) in 2 provinces with active malaria transmission. In April 2023, a multistage, in-person survey was conducted among residents in the 2 ODs in Cambodia with the highest malaria burden: Sen Monorom in Mondulkiri province and Phnom Srouch in Kampong Speu province. In each OD, 10 villages were randomly selected, and 35 households were randomly selected from each village. To estimate the number of individuals at high risk of malaria-defined as residing within 1 km of a forest or traveling at least once per week to the forest-respondents were asked about the distance from their household to the nearest forested area, and their travel patterns to forested areas. To account for mobility (ie, to avoid double-counting), respondents also provided information on overnight stays at other households in the selected villages in the past month. In the 4 selected villages in Sen Monorom OD where Project BITE forest packs (an intervention in the larger research program) had been distributed prior to the survey, respondents were also asked questions to determine if they had received such a pack, to develop smaller scale "multiplier method" estimates of at-risk individuals in each of those villages. In Sen Monorom, 138 households and 872 individuals were enrolled in the survey, and in Phnom Srouch, 163 households and 844 individuals were enrolled. The estimated percentage of female householders was 49.7% (852/1716) across both ODs; the median age was 22 (IQR 12-37) years in Sen Monorom and 24.5 (IQR 16.0-40.5) years in Phnom Srouch (total age range 3-86). Based on mobility-adjusted survey estimates alone, 32% (280/706; 95% CI 19.9-47.2) of residents in Sen Monorom (an estimated 12,133-20,135 individuals) and 36% (68/198; 95% CI 24.5-45.5) of residents in Phnom Srouch (an estimated 1717-2203 individuals), met risk criteria for forest exposure. Between 125 and 186 individuals were estimated to be at risk in each of the 4 villages where the multiplier method could be applied. This study provides estimates of the number of individuals potentially at high risk for malaria infection due to forest exposure in 2 ODs in Cambodia. These estimates can support planning for malaria control and elimination efforts. The straightforward methods of household surveys and multipliers should be feasible for many national malaria control programs.